After months of tracking approximately twenty per cent below the ten-year seasonal average, Metro Vancouver1 home sales surged more than 30 per cent year-over-year in October.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales2 registered on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in the region totalled 2,632 in October 2024, a 31.9 per cent increase from the 1,996 sales recorded in October 2023. This was 5.5 per cent below the 10- year seasonal average (2,784).

“Typically, reductions to mortgage rates boost demand, and the strong October sales numbers suggest buyers may finally be responding to lower borrowing costs after waiting on the sidelines for months,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “To some market watchers, this rebound may come as a surprise, but with four consecutive rate cuts from the Bank of Canada – and more likely to come on the horizon – it was only a matter of time until signs of renewed strength in demand showed up.”

There were 5,452 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver in October 2024. This represents a 16.9 per cent increase compared to the 4,664 properties listed in October 2023. This was 20 per cent above the 10- year seasonal average (4,545).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,477, a 24.8 per cent increase compared to October 2023 (11,599). This total is also 26.2 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (11,475).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for October 2024 is 18.8 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 13.4 per cent for detached homes, 22.5 per cent for attached, and 22.2 per cent for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“While the strength in October's numbers is encouraging, one data point does not make a trend," Lis said. "Recent data shows that market conditions have been decidedly balanced, with prices easing over the past few months. With the recent uptick in sales however, the attached and apartment segments are now tilting toward a seller’s market with the detached segment not far behind, suggesting the recent period of price moderation may be nearing an end."

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,172,200. This represents a 1.9 per cent decrease over October 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2024.

Sales of detached homes in October 2024 reached 724, a 25.5 per cent increase from the 577 detached sales recorded in October 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,002,900. This represents a 0.3 per cent increase from October 2023 and a 1 per cent decrease compared to September 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,393 in October 2024, a 33.4 per cent increase compared to the 1,044 sales in October 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $757,200. This represents a 1.6 per cent decrease from October 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2024.

Attached home sales in October 2024 totalled 501, a 40.7 per cent increase compared to the 356 sales in October 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,108,800. This represents a 0.4 per cent increase from October 2023 and a 0.9 per cent increase compared to September 2024.

Rising home sales a sign of market shift in the Fraser Valley?

Home sales in the Fraser Valley increased for the first time in five months following a sizable interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in October.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board recorded 1,330 sales in October, up 35 per cent from September, and 37 per cent year-over-year.

“After waiting it out on the sidelines for a number of months, buyers seem to be finally responding to the series of successive rate cuts by the Bank of Canada,” said Jeff Chadha, Chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “Whether this is an indication of further sales trends, remains to be seen, especially as the feds eye a possible additional cut before year-end.”

New listings declined in October, down 5 per cent to 3,194, but increased 26 per cent year-over-year. Overall inventory dipped in October to 8,799, down three per cent from September, but up 34 per cent over last year. Rising sales and steady inventory levels have the Fraser Valley in a balanced market with a sales-to-active ratio of 15 per cent. The market is considered to be balanced when the ratio is between 12 per cent and 20 per cent.

“October’s healthy sales boost is a welcome development for buyers and sellers alike,” said Baldev Gill, CEO of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “The coming weeks and months will shed more light on whether buyer optimism has returned now that the cycle of interest rate cuts is in full swing.”

Across the Fraser Valley in October, the average number of days to sell a single-family detached home was 34, while for a condo it was 32. Townhomes took, on average, 29 days to sell.

Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley dipped for the seventh straight month in October, with the composite Benchmark price down 0.7 per cent to $971,700.

If you are interested in learning about the specific stats of a neighborhood, reach out to Iwa. They can provide insights on areas, property types, or trends you can leverage in 2024.