Home sales registered on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver1 declined 3.8 per cent year over year in September, suggesting recent reductions in borrowing costs are having a limited effect in spurring demand so far.

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR)2 reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,852 in September 2024, a 3.8 per cent decrease from the 1,926 sales recorded in September 2023. This was 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,502).

"Real estate watchers have been monitoring the data for signs of renewed strength in demand in response to recent mortgage rate reductions, but the September figures don’t offer the signal that many are watching for.

Sales continue trending roughly 25 per cent below the ten-year seasonal average in the region, which, believe it or not, is a trend that has been in place for a few years now. With the September data, sales are now tracking slightly below our forecast however, but we remain optimistic sales will still end 2024 higher than 2023."

There were 6,144 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in September 2024. This represents a 12.8 per cent increase compared to the 5,446 properties listed in September 2023. This was also 16.7 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (5,266).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 14,932, a 31.2 per cent increase compared to September 2023 (11,382). This is 24.2 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (12,027).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2024 is 12.8 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 9.1 per cent for detached homes, 16.9 per cent for attached, and 14.6 per cent for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“With some buyers choosing to stay on the sidelines, inventory levels have sustained the healthy gains achieved over the course of this year, providing much more selection to anyone searching for a home,” Lis said.

With all this choice available, prices have trended sideways for the past few months. The September figures, however, are now showing modest declines across all segments on a month over month basis. This downward pressure on prices is a result of sales not keeping pace with the number of newly listed properties coming to market, which has now put the overall market on the cusp of a buyers’ market. With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,179,700. This represents a 1.8 per cent decrease over September 2023 and a 1.4 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.

Sales of detached homes in September 2024 reached 516, a 9.8 per cent decrease from the 572 detached sales recorded in September 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,022,200. This represents a 0.5 per cent increase from September 2023 and a 1.3 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 940 in September 2024, a 4.9 per cent decrease compared to the 988 sales in September 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $762,000. This represents a 0.8 per cent decrease from September 2023 and a 0.8 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.

Attached home sales in September 2024 totalled 378, a 7.4 per cent increase compared to the 352 sales in September 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,099,200. This represents a 0.5 per cent decrease from September 2023 and a 1.8 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.

Sluggish sales and rising inventories see Fraser Valley moving toward a buyer’s market

SURREY, BC – With active inventories hitting levels not seen in 10 years and sales 30 per cent below the 10- year average, Fraser Valley real estate is building towards a buyer’s market if sales continue to lag.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board recorded 982 sales in September, down by eight per cent over August and by more than 10 per cent over September 2023. Again, seasonally adjusted sales were the second slowest in a decade in the Fraser Valley.

“With three rate cuts already and more expected before the end of the year, buyers are watching the market closely to time their purchasing decisions,” said Jeff Chadha, Chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “The current conditions should favour buyers, particularly in the detached market, however until we start to see some movement in asking prices, properties will continue to sit on the market for extended periods as both buyers and sellers await the next rate announcement.”

New listings rose in September, up 21 per cent to 3,352, an increase of 17 per cent year-over-year. Overall inventory increased five per cent from August to September to 9,045, up 39 per cent over last year. The combination of declining sales and rising inventories has helped to create balanced, and in some cases, buyers’, market conditions in the Fraser Valley.

“We know the demand is there among Fraser Valley buyers,” said Baldev Gill, CEO of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “After months on the sidelines, buyers want to get into the market but many also need to sell before they can buy. When you factor in affordability challenges and the anticipation of more interest rate cuts, we are seeing persistent weakness in the market. In conditions like these, we encourage buyers and sellers alike to talk to their REALTOR® to assess the risks and opportunities before making a decision.”

Across the Fraser Valley in September, the average number of days to sell a single-family detached home was 35, while for a condo it was 37. Townhomes took, on average, 30 days to sell.

Benchmark prices in the Fraser Valley dipped again in September, with the composite Benchmark price down 1.4 per cent to $978,800.

If you are interested in learning about the specific stats of a neighborhood, reach out to Iwa. They can provide insights on areas, property types, or trends you can leverage in 2024.